A new projection shows Incheon, now home to roughly 3.05 million residents, will peak at about 3.10 million in 2032 before entering a sustained decline that could reduce the population to roughly 2.42 million by 2060.
Researchers urged city officials to redesign urban structures and adopt long-term balanced development strategies to prepare for the projected population loss.
On the 23rd, the Incheon Research Institute released the final report of its planning project, "Basic Population Projection Study for Incheon."
The study applied a cohort-component model that incorporates births, deaths and migration to analyze changes in population size and structure across Incheon and its districts through 2060 and to draw policy implications.
Researchers forecast a modest rise from about 3.05 million today to roughly 3.10 million by 2032, followed by a decline to about 2.42 million in 2060 driven by falling fertility and cumulative aging.
The population aged 80 and over is expected to increase from roughly 60,000 today to about 200,000 by 2060 — more than triple — with a growing proportion of elderly women.
Analysts warned the decline will accelerate after the 2040s, with annual decreases of 20,000–30,000 likely from the mid-2050s onward.
The research team recommended strengthening a virtuous cycle linking settlement, employment and family formation for young people by coordinating youth housing, job opportunities and childcare. They also called for job creation tied to local universities and measures to ease housing cost burdens.
Associate Research Fellow Park Min-geun urged designing customized population policies for each municipality — rather than one-size-fits-all solutions — by accounting for differences in fertility, migration and aging rates, and establishing a system for regular projection updates.
/Seongwon Byun, reporter bsw906@incheonilbo.com
