The Daegu mayoral race has tightened as competing polls continue to produce mixed results.
Major surveys show Democratic Party candidate Kim Bu-gyeom and People Power Party candidate Chu Kyung-ho either locked in a margin-of-error contest or trading leads depending on the poll, leaving the outcome uncertain.
A poll commissioned by the Maeil Newspaper and conducted by Hangil Research on April 27–28 surveyed 1,004 Daegu residents aged 18 and older. It found Chu Kyung-ho at 46.1% and Kim Bu-gyeom at 42.6%.
The gap between the two candidates was 3.5 percentage points, within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points).
Lee Soo-chan of the Reform New Party polled at 2.3%; 4.5% said they would vote for no one, and 3.6% said they didn’t know.
A separate poll, commissioned by TBC and conducted by Realmeter during the same period, surveyed 1,008 Daegu residents aged 18 and older and produced a different result: Kim Bu-gyeom at 47.5% versus Chu Kyung-ho at 39.8%, a 7.7-percentage-point lead for Kim.
That gap is outside the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level).
When asked who is most likely to win, 48.3% named Kim and 42.1% named Chu, a 6.2-percentage-point difference.
Taken together, the two polls suggest a razor-thin contest that shifts with methodology and timing rather than signaling a decisive advantage for either candidate.
Hangil Research interpreted its findings as both parties consolidating their bases simultaneously, producing the near tie.
Hong Hyung-sik, director of Hangil Research, said a mix of factors — the elimination of the possibility that primary-excluded candidates would run as independents, a reduced role for party leadership, and a primary convention effect — helped lift support for Chu.
Support patterns also diverged clearly by age. In the Maeil Newspaper poll, Kim led with 54.8% among voters in their 40s, while Chu drew 72.8% support from voters aged 70 and over.
The TBC poll showed Kim performing relatively well among voters in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, while Chu was stronger among voters aged 60 and older.
Voter commitment was high: in the TBC poll, 79.3% said they would stick with their current choice through election day, while only 19.2% said their vote could change depending on circumstances.
Political observers say the race appears likely to pit consolidated bases from both major parties along traditional regional lines, making a narrow-margin outcome probable. They expect undecided voters to determine the final result.
The Maeil Newspaper poll used an automated response system with virtual mobile numbers and recorded a 6.8% response rate. The Realmeter poll employed a wireless automated response method during the same period. Both surveys report a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
For more details, see the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.
