Guests: Moon Seong‑muk, director of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy; Lee Won‑sam, emeritus professor of international relations at Sun Moon University.
Reports indicate President Trump has ordered aides to end the war with Iran within weeks.
Whether Washington can meet that timetable remains unclear.
We discuss the implications with Moon Seong‑muk and Lee Won‑sam.
「Question 1」 Washington says it is negotiating to end the war, while Tehran insists it will not engage in talks. What explains the sharp divergence between U.S. and Iranian positions?
「Question 2」 Despite Tehran’s public refusal to negotiate, it reportedly submitted a counterproposal to a U.S. offer. Some analysts view that as leaving room for talks; others call the terms a non‑starter. How do you assess Iran’s counterproposal?
「Question 3」 International reports say the U.S. temporarily removed Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi from a strike list for up to four or five days. Both figures have been mentioned as potential Iranian interlocutors. Does that suggest a realistic chance of meetings within days?
「Question 4」 The White House says it wants negotiations to end the war while warning President Trump is “ready to unleash hell.” Earlier reports said he approved additional ground forces. How likely is the conflict to escalate?
「Question 4-1」 Iran has bolstered defenses on Kharg Island, placing missiles and mines. If U.S. forces attempt to seize Kharg, would Iranian resistance be strong and costly?
「Question 5」 Reports claim President Trump told aides to finish the war in a matter of weeks, asking them to adhere to a publicly stated 4–6 week timeline. Some observers say he aims to end combat as early as next month. With Iran rejecting direct talks, can that goal be achieved?
「Question 6」 Tehran has warned it could open a “second front” in the Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea if foreign forces attack Iranian territory. If both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab‑el‑Mandeb were disrupted simultaneously, global energy markets would be hit hard. How credible and effective is Iran’s threat?
「Question 7」 Foreign media report Iran plans to levy transit “tolls” in the effectively blocked Strait of Hormuz, similar to the Suez Canal—roughly $2 million per ship per transit, approximately 3 billion KRW (about $2.25 million). How likely is this toll scheme to become reality, and what would be its practical impact on shipping and market stability?
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Park Jin‑hyung (jin@yna.co.kr)
