「Featuring: Ma Young-sam, former Israeli ambassador · Moon Seong-mook, director of the Unification Strategy Center, Korea Institute for National Strategy」
Chaos persists as the war with Iran enters its fifth week.
Pakistan has offered to mediate and observers expect it to convene talks soon. At the same time, analysts warn U.S. ground forces may be preparing to secure Iran’s uranium stockpiles or oil facilities.
We examine the situation with former Israeli Ambassador Ma Young-sam and Moon Seong-mook, director of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy.
「Question 1」 The Economist wrote that “the Iranian regime may get beaten on the battlefield, but it’s winning the energy war.” Analysts say Iran’s oil sector has adapted to the new reality and strengthened its resilience to airstrikes and sanctions. How do you assess the situation now that the conflict has entered its fifth week?
「Question 2」 Pakistan, which has offered to mediate, says it will host “meaningful talks between the U.S. and Iran within days.” Neither Washington nor Tehran has issued an official response. Officials also haven’t confirmed whether the talks would be direct, in-person meetings or indirect, mediated sessions. What does that suggest to you?
「Question 3」 Reports indicate Iran is even considering withdrawing from the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty (NPT). If Iran follows through, wouldn’t that complicate and likely prolong any ceasefire negotiations with the United States?
「Question 4」 President Trump said negotiations with Iran are “going very well” and suggested an agreement could come soon. He also said he is considering seizing Harg Island to secure Iranian oil. How do you reconcile those seemingly contradictory comments?
「Question 5」 Some analysts argue U.S. forces might first seize seven islands that control the Strait of Hormuz before moving on Harg Island. Observers expect ground troops would be deployed prior to securing those islands. They note missiles and fast-attack craft based on Larak Island present a serious threat, and that troops could be exposed to drones, missiles and artillery launched from the Iranian mainland — increasing the risk of additional casualties. Given those risks, would President Trump still order a ground invasion? Would domestic public opinion in the U.S. constrain such a decision?
「Question 6」 Reports say President Trump is considering a military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles. He earlier cited forcing Iran to abandon its nuclear capability as a major rationale for the war. How likely is it that such an operation would be carried out?
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Kim Seong-gu (sunggu37@yna.co.kr)
