Countdown to Regime Change: How Long Until Iran's Government Collapses?

Jisoo Kim | 2026.03.11

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[Anchor]

Officials say Muztaba Khamenei, chosen as Iran’s new supreme leader, was wounded in the airstrike on the 28th of last month and is now in hiding.

Israeli officials estimate the collapse of Iran’s regime could take as long as a year.

Reporter Kim Ji-soo reports.

[Reporter]

Iran’s Assembly of Experts officially announced the succession on the 9th, citing assassination threats that had delayed the process. But Muztaba Khamenei has released no audio messages and has not appeared at any public events.

Sources say he is hiding both for security reasons and because he suffered wounds to his leg and elsewhere in the airstrike on the 28th.

The New York Times, citing multiple Iranian officials, reported that Muztaba was wounded in the leg, remains conscious, and is sheltering in a high-security facility with heavily restricted communications.

State television’s decision to call him a \"janbaz\" — a term for a war-disabled veteran — further suggests he was injured.

Iran state TV host: (Muztaba) is a 'janbaz' from the Ramadan war, a figure who inherits the proud, steadfast path of our martyrs.

Meanwhile, senior Israeli government and security officials say they expect a regime collapse in Iran could take up to a year.

Israel’s public broadcaster Kan reported that after a recent security briefing, ministers told staff they expect joint military operations to end relatively soon, but that a full collapse of the regime will take more time.

Israeli strategy, officials say, is to maintain sustained military pressure until Iran’s population can remove its rulers. That means airstrikes against Iranian targets are likely to continue in the near term.

Analysts say Israel also faces difficulty in interpreting U.S. President Trump’s intentions.

This is Kim Ji-soo for Yonhap News TV.

[Video editing: Park Chang-geun]

[Graphics: Jo Min-gi, Seong Hyun-a]


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Kim Ji-soo (goodman@yna.co.kr)