How New Users Made Huge Profits Betting on Trump's Iran Ceasefire Announcement

Daniel Kim | 2026.04.10

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[Herald Economy=Lee Won-yul] New accounts on the prediction market Polymarket posted sizable gains after betting on a cease-fire just hours before President Donald Trump announced one, the Associated Press reported.According to the AP, those wagers were placed only a few hours before the cease-fire declaration on the afternoon of the 7th (ET).At the time, Trump had been pressing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and issuing stark warnings that failure to comply could mean “the destruction of civilization itself,” using increasingly threatening language.Trump posted the cease-fire announcement on Truth Social at about 6:30 p.m. on the 7th.Using the crypto analytics platform Dune to examine Polymarket’s public blockchain records, the AP found that at least 50 accounts (wallets) placed bets on the cease-fire before Trump’s post.Those trades were the first recorded transactions for those accounts.One wallet created around 10 a.m. placed roughly 100,000,000 KRW (approximately $75,000) at an average price of 8.8 cents. Polymarket’s market prices for event outcomes range from $0 to $1, which correspond to perceived probabilities from 0% to 100%.That user later cashed out about 280,000,000 KRW (approximately $210,000).An account created the previous day reportedly realized a profit of 173,900,000 KRW (approximately $130,425).Another wallet created just 12 minutes before Trump’s post wagered 44,209,000 KRW (approximately $33,157) at a price of 33.7 cents and later logged a 67,200,000 KRW (approximately $50,400) profit. Some observers described the timing as “uncanny” and “too perfectly timed to ignore.”It’s possible the small uptick in Polymarket’s cease-fire price that afternoon reflected external reporting that Pakistan’s government was pushing for a cease-fire, and some users may have simply anticipated that the president would step back and bet accordingly.The AP noted that while some Polymarket users who backed the cease-fire realized large gains, others are still awaiting payouts. Polymarket temporarily paused payouts and said it would monitor the situation for 48 hours, citing continued Iranian control of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing missile attacks in the area.Public blockchain data cannot identify the actual owners of the new accounts, the AP reported. Only Polymarket can determine whether the wallets belonged to genuinely new users or to existing users who opened additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
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In a related development, U.S. federal prosecutors have opened an inquiry into whether large wagers on prediction markets like Polymarket involved insider trading, CNN reported last month.Citing multiple sources, CNN said prosecutors from the Securities and Commodities Fraud Task Force in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York recently met with Polymarket officials to discuss how existing laws might apply to potential misconduct on prediction markets.Prosecutors are scrutinizing high-profit wagers tied to the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest, the outbreak of a war with Iran, and outcomes of popular television programs.The central question is whether participants simply got lucky or relied on inside information.Some legal experts warn that prosecutors could face an uphill battle. There is little precedent for federal criminal prosecutions or civil enforcement actions by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in this space, making it harder to prove charges under existing statutes.
Daniel Kim

Daniel Kim

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