The New York Times reported on April 23 that the standoff between the United States and Iran has become a game of brinkmanship, making a military solution impractical and leaving negotiations as the most viable path forward. Seth Jones, director of the Defense and Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told the NYT the U.S. would find it difficult to strike Iran hard enough to prevent retaliation. He warned that attempts to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz could see U.S. warships sunk and large numbers of U.S. service members killed.
Tehran also views an outright military defeat of the United States as unlikely. With a decisive military outcome off the table, the confrontation is increasingly a contest of wills.
A senior Iranian official posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Iranian forces are hiding in seabed caves near the Strait of Hormuz, ready to “obliterate the invaders.”
Eighteen minutes later, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had ordered the U.S. Navy to sink any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
The NYT noted both sides claim they are prepared to carry out such actions and show no immediate sign of conceding to the other’s demands.
Jones described the episode as a form of a “chicken” game and said military officials on both sides are likely telling political leaders that force cannot provide a permanent solution.
Jones and other experts argue that, given the military stalemate and the economic pain both countries are enduring, negotiated settlement appears to be the most logical exit.
