“13 new nuclear and missile systems”…North Korea reshaped the military balance over five years
38 North, the North Korea monitoring outlet at the Stimson Center, conducted a midterm review of Kim Jong Un’s "Five-Year Plan for Defense Science and Weapons Development" and concluded Pyongyang pursued 13 new nuclear and missile systems in parallel over the past five years. At least four of those systems have reached operational deployment, and analysts judge two more are close to operational status. Experts say the biggest shift is that many threats once viewed as future risks are now war-ready capabilities.
Solid-fuel ICBM, tactical nukes, cruise missiles, reconnaissance satellites…a completed 'nuclear quadrilateral'
38 North identifies four core systems that have moved into the "development complete and operational deployment" category: the solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-18; long-range cruise missiles; the tactical nuclear warhead Hwasan-31; and the military reconnaissance satellite Manligyung-1. Since 2023 the Hwasong-18 has flown at least three times, reaching apogees above 6,000 km on high-angle trajectories and exhibiting stable flight characteristics, prompting assessments that it could be fielded within a year.
The ground- and sea-launched cruise missiles labeled Hwasal-2 and Bulhwasal-3-31 fly prolonged low-altitude profiles and can deliver precision strikes, creating a threat capable of bypassing South Korea–U.S.–Japan air defenses. Paired with a modular Hwasan-31 warhead—engineered to be swapped across different missile types—and the orbiting Manligyung-1, these systems give North Korea integrated detection, command and strike capabilities. Analysts describe that suite as a de facto "nuclear quadrilateral."
Hwasan‑31: a standardized tactical nuke you can “insert like a battery”
North Korea first released images of the Hwasan-31 in 2023 and claims the warhead can be fitted to at least eight platforms, including a 600mm super-large multiple rocket launcher, short-range ballistic missiles in the KN-23/24 family, cruise missiles Hwasal-1 and -2, and the unmanned underwater attack vehicle Haeil. South Korean intelligence assesses Pyongyang has achieved substantial miniaturization and weight reduction of its warheads and believes Hwasan-31 could be mounted on most new missiles capable of striking across the peninsula.
Analysts note that a standardized tactical warhead shared across multiple delivery systems simplifies production, deployment and operations. In a conflict, commanders could swap warheads among launchers to create flexible attack patterns. That suggests North Korea is focusing not only on warhead design but also on systems that make nuclear weapons easier to employ in combat.
'Haeil' and medium/large drones…asymmetric forces now at an operational level
Beyond the four fully fielded systems, 38 North classifies the nuclear-capable unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) Haeil and a medium-range reconnaissance drone as systems "near operational." Haeil is a concept weapon intended to create an "artificial nuclear tidal wave" near ports and coastal cities if armed with a nuclear payload. While experts debate its technical maturity, the psychological and deterrent effects of adding another nuclear delivery option are substantial.
North Korea’s medium reconnaissance and attack drones still lag Western systems, but repeated public tests indicate improvements in communications, navigation and sensors. Most analysts view these asymmetric capabilities as more likely tools for localized provocations or combined, multi-domain attacks linked to nuclear and missile strikes than for large-scale conventional operations.
Nuclear subs, SLBMs, MIRVs are 'partial successes'…technical barriers remain
In contrast, technologies Pyongyang has publicly emphasized—nuclear-powered submarines, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs)—remain short of full operational maturity. The vessel promoted as a "nuclear submarine" has shown no evidence of extended at-sea training or long-range deployment nearly two years after its launch, raising questions about reactor output, reactor miniaturization and acoustic signature management.
Although North Korea has conducted multiple SLBM tests, many experts remain skeptical it has mastered reliable underwater launch and reentry performance. 38 North warns that MIRV technology could most sharply expand North Korea’s strike capacity, but the high precision required for independently targeted reentry vehicles means practical fielding will likely take several more years.
What will they announce at the 9th Party Congress? South Korea must overhaul its security strategy
38 North highlights the timing of the assessment: it arrives as North Korea’s five-year plan concludes and ahead of the 9th Workers’ Party Congress scheduled for 2026. Pyongyang is expected to publicly showcase achievements such as the solid-fuel ICBM, tactical nuclear warheads, cruise missiles and reconnaissance satellites, and to frame MIRVs, hypersonic glide vehicles and completing a nuclear submarine as the next priorities.
From Seoul’s perspective, experts urge immediate refinement of interception, deterrence and leadership-survivability plans for systems that have already reached operational deployment. They also call for a thorough reassessment of layered defenses spanning maritime, space and cyber domains. Analysts warn that getting an accurate read on North Korea’s actual capabilities now is fortunate, but if responses lag, today’s concerns could become reality within five years.
